Hodl Up! Your weekly crypto catch up: Week 14 '25
BTC & ETH have their worst first quarter since 2018, Donald Trump takes the absolute life out of both stocks and crypto markets and why it is good to remember where we came from to calm ourselves.
I know, I know my friends - we were supposed to be winning. We were supposed to say “Stop Mr. President, we’re tired of winning“ and what we are getting is a complete opposite.
In February, we thought March would be good for the markets; in March we thought it’d be April and now… I don’t even want to speculate. So this week, let us just take the time to go through some stats, go through some decisions and most importantly as we say in crypto - zoom out a bit and see where did we come from in the last decade.
NOTE: NOTHING EVER MENTIONED IN ANY OF OUR CRYPTO TALK’s POSTS/NEWSLETTERS/CONTENT IS FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALWAYS DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH.
A bad bad quarter ETH
Ethereum was a butt of jokes in 2024, it was a butt of jokes because it did not reach $5,000. Now, it isn’t funny anymore. $ETH is sitting just over $1,800 and no one is joking around. People are worried, genuinely worried about Ethereum.
And they do have cause. I have been a big supporter of ETH for the past 8 years but in the past couple of years, it’s been difficult to defend. Have we finally come to a point where the flippening might happen - oh no, not BTC & ETH but ETH & SOL, or maybe ETH & XRP or maybe even ETH & USDT.
This is an image I found on the internet - showing how miserable has $ETH been this quarter. The worst first quarter since 2018. And oh my god, don’t we remember 2018. If you were not here, just go through the data above.
I had our data analyst Mr. Chat GPT go through the above image and come up with some analysis →
Key Insights:
2025 Q1 Performance: Ethereum has experienced one of its worst quarterly performances since 2018. The first quarter of 2025 saw negative returns in all three months:
January: -1.28%
February: -31.95%
March: -17.28%
Total Q1 2025 drop: Approximately -50%
Comparison with Previous Worst Quarters:
The last time Ethereum had a similar or worse quarterly performance was in Q1 2018, where the combined decline was significantly impacted by a -53.79% drop in March 2018.
Q2 2022 also saw a significant decline, with April dropping -28.84% and June plummeting by -44.79%, totaling around -60% for the quarter.
Market Sentiment:
The substantial drop in February 2025, exceeding -30%, marks it as one of the most challenging months for Ethereum since the 2018 bear market period.
Such significant drops indicate heightened market volatility, possibly driven by macroeconomic factors, regulatory concerns, or network-specific challenges.
Contextual Analysis:
Historically, quarters with multiple months of double-digit negative returns signal a bearish trend, often correlating with broader crypto market downturns or adverse news specific to Ethereum or the blockchain ecosystem.
The persistence of negative sentiment across all three months of Q1 2025 suggests that Ethereum is facing a unique set of challenges not seen in previous years, potentially making it the most challenging start to a year since the 2018 crash.
I must say - Mr. GPT did not fill me with a lot of confidence. As I mentioned, no speculation in this week’s HODL UP! No speculation on whether we’ll still get a bull run we’re waiting for. But I hate you Mr. GPT.
Stop, Mr. President. We’re tired of losing.
Donald Trump once again made headlines,and investors pull their hair out- by rolling out aggressive trade tariffs, his latest weapon in the seemingly endless trade wars saga. Labeling them "reciprocal tariffs," Trump targeted nearly every major U.S. trading partner with hefty duties, causing ripples of anxiety from Wall Street to cryptocurrency exchanges worldwide.
The tariffs, starting at a modest-sounding 10% but soaring as high as 34% for imports from China, were essentially Trump's way of reigniting the "make America manufacture again" flame. Europe wasn't spared either; EU goods faced 20% duties, while Japan and South Korea received similarly unwelcome tariff surprises. In a classic Trumpian twist, he framed these harsh measures as necessary tough love—though global markets felt it was more tough and less love.
As expected, the reaction from global stock markets was dramatic enough to resemble a soap opera cliffhanger. In the U.S., investors watched in horror as the Dow Jones plunged nearly 1,700 points in a single day. European stocks matched this panic stride-for-stride, with Germany's usually sturdy DAX and France’s chic CAC 40 tumbling between 4-5%. To add insult to injury, China fired back swiftly, slapping hefty duties on American goods and tightening exports of crucial rare earth minerals, prompting even the bravest investors to reconsider their life choices.
In the crypto world, the reactions weren't much different. Bitcoin, crypto's golden child, dropped swiftly from $88,000 to around $82,000, making hodlers question their digital-gold bets. Ethereum didn't fare better, dipping below the critical $1,800 mark—enough to give even seasoned crypto veterans heartburn. However, the crypto market showed a quirky resilience. While tech stocks stayed down nursing their wounds, Bitcoin quickly stabilized, hovering around the reassuring figure of $80,000, leading some to cheekily suggest crypto's volatility had become more predictable than Trump's policies.
Analysts debated fiercely whether Bitcoin and Ethereum’s dips indicated increased alignment with traditional finance's turmoil or were simply an emotional knee-jerk. Amidst the panic, some market watchers wryly noted that if Trump’s tariffs successfully weakened the dollar, cryptocurrencies might ironically become even more attractive as hedges against traditional financial mayhem. After all, Bitcoin as "digital gold" looks shinier when fiat currencies wobble.
BTC - From 2015 to 2025
This is something that everyone in crypto needs to re-tell them, especially newer people in the market.
If you zoom out and take a deep breath, you'll realize Bitcoin’s journey from 2015 to 2025 is nothing short of extraordinary. Back in 2015, when Bitcoin hovered around $360, many of us didn't quite grasp the revolution brewing beneath the surface. It was just another speculative play, something a bit edgy, even slightly rebellious. Fast forward ten years, and Bitcoin sits proudly around the $100,000 mark. Sure, we’ve seen highs, lows, and countless 'this is the end' moments, yet here we are, stronger than ever.
It's easy to panic when the charts turn red, especially when altcoins seem trapped in a downward spiral. Ethereum, Solana, and others, beloved as they are, currently face turbulent times. Yet experience tells us that even the most battered altcoins eventually realign. Crypto winters come and go, so wait for the summer (literally, please wait and don’t sell xD)
Looking back isn't just nostalgia—it’s perspective. Bitcoin’s decade-long trajectory highlights resilience, adaptation, and growth. We’ve come from debates about its legitimacy to institutional adoption and regulatory frameworks. Bitcoin isn't just digital gold; it's a survivor, an innovator, and a symbol of financial evolution.
And we're still early. Imagine where the next decade will lead. Yes, challenges remain, market volatility, global regulatory hurdles, and shifting narratives but each hurdle cleared is another step forward. Bitcoin’s story isn't linear; it's filled with surprises, setbacks, and surges that collectively paint a picture of remarkable progress.
So the next time anxiety creeps in, take a moment and zoom out. From $360 to $100,000 in ten short years isn't just progress—it's transformative. We're not just surviving; we're thriving. Remember how far we've come, and just imagine how far we've yet to go.
A Look At The Markets
I myself have hated covering this section in the past 6-7 weeks but we have to. The TOTAL mc has fallen another $150 Billion to $2.65T this week with $BTC around $84.5k and $ETH around $1.8k.
Biggest Winner
$EOS: EOS 0.00%↑ has come out of the blue and pumped 35% in the worst week for crypto. I just read about some rebranding stuff. Good going, EOS.
Biggest Loser
PI 0.00%↑ : PI has done a 6x in the wrong direction in the past 45 days. It’s just brutal what is happening here.
That’s it for this week folks. Just stay and strong and don’t stop believing. (Yeah, I did that). STAY SAFU!